The World Health Organization has predicted a worst-case scenario cornovirus infections in Africa.
In a provisional modeling released on Friday April 17, 2020, WHO projected that the cases of the pandemic could shoot up from thousands to ten million within three to six months.
Talking about WHO’s projection, Michel Yao, head of emergency operations for WHO Africa, however said the projection is tentative because the context and health measures in the continent does change too much.
“This is still to be fine-tuned. It’sdifficult to make a long-term estimation because the context changes too much and also public health measures, when they are fully implemented, they can actually have an impact.” he said.
Compared with other continents, African had so far had over 17,000 confirmed cases and about 900 deaths.
Given the condition of health system in the country there us fear that the virus cases could shoot up.
“We are concerned that the virus continues to spread geographically, within countries,” said director of WHO’s Africa region, Matshidiso Moeti.
In a report by the UN Economic Commission for Africa, it was stated that Africa could experience 1.2 billion infections and 3.3 million deaths in the worst-case scenario if there were no proper and timely interventions.
“Under the worst-case scenario with no interventions against the virus, Africa could see 3.3 million deaths and 1.2 billion infections,” the report said.
Similarly, in a separate research, a modeling by the Imperial College London on which a report was released on Friday, it was said that even under the best-case scenario Africa could experience 300,000 coronavirus deaths.