In a sobering assessment, a group of scientists has linked the ongoing “extreme” drought afflicting Iraq, Syria, and Iran to the pernicious effects of climate change, predominantly driven by the burning of fossil fuels.
These experts, representing the World Weather Attribution (WWA) group, cautioned on Wednesday that as the planet continues to warm, punishing dry spells like the current one will become more frequent and intense.
High temperatures attributed to human-induced climate change have substantially elevated the likelihood of this drought. According to the WWA, the drought has become approximately 25 times more likely in Syria and Iraq and 16 times more likely in Iran due to the influence of climate change. The scientists emphasized that such a drought would not have reached its current intensity in a world 1.2 degrees Celsius cooler.
This research specifically focused on the period spanning from July 2020 to June 2023 in two severely impacted regions: Iran and the basin of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, which traverse Syria and Iraq. Both of these regions are currently grappling with what the U.S. Drought Monitor classifies as an “extreme drought.”
The cumulative impact of very low rainfall over three years and soaring temperatures has led to severe consequences, particularly affecting agricultural access to potable water. The human toll is substantial, given the existing vulnerabilities resulting from “years of conflict and political instability.” This dire situation has led to a humanitarian disaster.
Co-author Friederike Otto, from the Grantham Institute at Imperial College London, noted the importance of better resource management in addressing these issues, particularly with rising temperatures threatening to increase evaporation, depleting precipitation in the region.
The repercussions of climate change and this drought are acutely observed in Iraq, a leading oil-producing nation, and war-torn Syria. Both countries have witnessed a significant decline in agricultural production, particularly among wheat farmers, as reduced river flows and water pollution hamper fishing.
By September 2022, the drought had already displaced nearly two million people in rural areas of Syria, underscoring the severity of the situation. In Iran, water shortages have not only led to soaring food prices but also tensions with neighboring countries. Iraq is not exempt from these water-related conflicts, with one in five of its citizens already suffering from water insecurity, as outlined in a recent UN report.
The scientists pointed out that water stress is amplified by various factors, including inefficient irrigation methods, outdated water treatment facilities, and rapid population growth. Additionally, key water systems are increasingly targeted and sabotaged during conflicts.
In a stark warning, the experts highlighted that “long-lasting severe droughts like these are no longer rare events.” Instead, they anticipate such droughts occurring approximately once a decade in Syria and Iraq and twice a decade in Iran as global temperatures continue to rise. As one of the co-authors, Mohammad Rahimi, cautioned, “With every degree of warming, Syria, Iraq, and Iran will become even harsher places to live.” The urgency of addressing climate change and its impacts is now more evident than ever.
