The United States and Iran have reached an agreement to exchange prisoners, marking a significant diplomatic breakthrough. The deal, eagerly anticipated by Washington, is seen as a potential catalyst for reducing tensions between the long-standing adversaries.
In a meticulously orchestrated process set to unfold on Monday, five American-Iranian dual nationals currently held in Iranian custody will be released and transported to Qatar. Simultaneously, the United States will release five Iranian detainees from American prisons.
Crucially, this exchange comes following the transfer of $6 billion in frozen Iranian oil revenue from South Korea to bank accounts in Qatar. These funds will be closely monitored to ensure their use for goods not subject to sanctions.
Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson, Nasser Kanaani, expressed optimism that the asset transfer to a “friendly country” would be completed on Monday, paving the way for the prisoner swap.
Sources indicate that Qatari officials have confirmed the successful transfer of the $6 billion from South Korea, facilitated through Switzerland, into Qatar-based accounts. A Qatari aircraft is on standby in Tehran, poised to transport the released American citizens to Doha on Monday morning.
This breakthrough follows months of indirect talks between the United States and Iran, with Qatar and Oman serving as facilitators. The hope is that this prisoner exchange will foster a level of trust conducive to further discussions regarding Iran’s nuclear program.
These discussions have also encompassed strategies for de-escalating tensions and addressing the nuclear issue. This includes Iran’s commitment not to target Americans and to cap uranium enrichment at 60 percent purity, below the threshold for weaponization. In return, Iran expects Washington to refrain from imposing additional economic sanctions.
Furthermore, the United States has been urging Iran to cease the sale of drones and spare parts to Moscow, which have reportedly been used in the conflict in Ukraine. Tehran has denied these allegations, and no agreement on this matter has been reached as of yet.
Despite lingering challenges, many believe that the prisoner exchange represents a crucial step in averting a nuclear crisis and mitigating the risk of renewed conflict in the Middle East. Sanam Vakil, Middle East director at Chatham House, asserts that this move allows President Joe Biden to fulfill his promise of bringing unjustly detained American citizens home.
The origins of this crisis trace back to former President Donald Trump’s unilateral withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear accord and the subsequent imposition of numerous sanctions on Iran, which have severely impacted its economy.
Diplomatic efforts to resuscitate the 2015 agreement have faced obstacles, and the feasibility of saving the accord appears increasingly slim in light of Iran’s nuclear advancements. U.S. officials express concerns that Iran now has the capability to produce sufficient fissile material for a nuclear weapon in a mere two weeks.
Analysts suggest that, for the Biden administration, containing the crisis may be the most realistic approach at present, with a potential return to substantive nuclear negotiations if President Biden secures a second term. Vakil notes that the broader trajectory of the Biden administration’s Iran policy remains uncertain.
For Iran, the release of the frozen $6 billion will offer much-needed hard currency relief amid economic challenges, including soaring inflation exceeding 40 percent. The United States also seeks improved cooperation between Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which monitors Iran’s nuclear activities. However, Tehran’s compliance with IAEA requests has been inconsistent, with recent condemnations for barring IAEA inspectors from certain monitoring activities.
Among the Iranian-American dual nationals set to be released from Iran are Emad Shargi, Morad Tahbaz, Siamak Namazi, and two others who wish to remain anonymous. Namazi is an American-Iranian businessman who has been detained for nearly eight years on charges of collaborating with the U.S. against Iran. Tahbaz, a businessman and environmental activist holding Iranian, U.S., and British nationalities, was arrested in 2018 on similar charges. Shargi is an Iranian-American businessman who was also arrested in 2018 and sentenced to 10 years in prison on similar charges.
The identities of the Iranians to be released from U.S. prisons have not been disclosed. Kanaani indicated that two of the Iranian detainees would return to Iran, one would go to a third country, and two would remain in the United States.
